COping with uNcertainties For Improved modelling and DEcision making in Nuclear emergenCiEs (CONFIDENCE)

The research project "COping with uNcertainties For Improved modelling and DEcision making in Nuclear emergenCiEs (CONFIDENCE)" is funded by the “CONCERT-European Joint Programme for the Integration of Radiation Protection Research” under the Horizon 2020. The duration of the project is 36 months (2017-2019) and its budget is 6.201.026 €. 

The H2020 CONFIDENCE Project aims to close existing gaps in several areas of emergency management and long-term rehabilitation. It concentrates on the early and transition phases of an emergency, but considers also longer-term decisions made during these phases. The project brings together expertise from all four Radiation Protection Platforms and also from Social Sciences and Humanities, such that it can address the scientific challenges associated with model uncertainties and improve radioecological predictions and emergency management (NERIS and ALLIANCE), situation awareness and monitoring strategies (EURADOS), risk estimation in the early phase (MELODI), decision making and strategy development at local and national levels (NERIS) including social and ethical aspects (Social Sciences and Humanities).

The work-programme of CONFIDENCE is defined to understand, reduce and cope with the uncertainty of meteorological and radiological data and their further propagation in decision support systems, including atmospheric dispersion, dose estimation, foodchain modelling and countermeasure simulations models. Consideration of social, ethical and communication aspects related to uncertainties is a key aspect of the project activities. Improvements in modelling and combining simulation with monitoring will help gaining a more comprehensive picture of the radiological situation and will clearly improve decision making under uncertainties. Decision making principles and methods will be investigated, ranging from formal decision aiding techniques to simulation based approaches. These will be demonstrated and tested in stakeholder workshops applying the simulation tools developed within CONFIDENCE. A comprehensive education and training programme is fully linked with the research activities. As the engagement with potential end users is also a key for success, the four European platforms MELODI, EURADOS, NERIS and ALLIANCE will be informed about the progress of the work. Further to this, the chair of the NERIS platform is a contractor. With the involvement of end users from the ARGOS and RODOS community, all European Member States, Associated States and even countries outside Europe are part of the dissemination and communication network of the project.